Keith Tkachuk, according to Andy Strickland, began negotiations on a new contract. This follows suit with the comments made by Blues President John Davidson earlier in the day. In that same interview, JD also mentioned that a goalie may be obtained via FA or trade, opening up potential trading partners similar to the situation that occurred last offseason with Chris Mason. Whether or not that means that they are going that route again or not i don't know, and personally suspect not.
The bigger question is what would it do to the lines.
Boyes - Mcdonald - Kariya
Perron - Berglund - Oshie
Those were my assumed top lines from before, with the obvious thought that AM switches them up during the game fairly often.
3rd line seems like it'd be similar to Crombeen/Backes - McClement - Steen
4th line would be Winchester/FA/King, Walt, Backes/Cam/King.
That's a mess obviously, but the point is Backes would get progressively more ice time as the game went on, taking the place of a goon.
PK1 would be Backes Oshie, PK2 would be McClement Crombeen with steen in the wings if one of the 4 should be in the box.
Walt figures into one of the power play lines with a forward likely manning at least one point.
Complicated enough yet? It gets better.
The blues might not even be done shopping for a forward if Walt resigns. Crombeen is not a given until he's signed, and we could very well go after another veteran forward to replace Crombeen's slot rather than resigning Winchester. I'd like to see a grinder with hands, but I think Winchester would probably be the best and most affordable option out there.
~~~
The plan this last season was to have Legace as the 1A and Mason 1B. A trip on the carpet and head games later, Mason is the starter and Bishop was a bystander for the majority of the season. Doesn't sound like the blues want Bishop to do that again, so the options are now out there with Free Agency right around the corner. There are many changes in coaching/front office these days, and we could very well see goalies on the way out from those teams. It'll take a while to sort that out.
Tuesday, June 16, 2009
Sunday, June 14, 2009
Blues Outlook - What's Missing
There has been much speculation as to what the blues truly need to become successful. Some say that we need to package a few prospects and a guy in the lineup to get a known talent. Others think we just need kids to graduate from the minors and such to be successful.
The following is a look into what the team has going for it, and what it does not.
In 2008, the blues finished 10 games over the .500 mark at 41-31-10. However, they also finished the season at 233 goals for and 233 goals against, which would be an indicator that they just as easily could have been closer to .500 record wise, but not so much that they should have been.
In 2008, the blues top line (the normal top line guys), posted the following #'s.
Brad Boyes - 33 goals, 39 assists, 72 points, 82 games, -20 +/-
Andy Mcdonald - 15 goals, 29 assists, 44 points, 46 games, -13 +/-
David Backes - 31 goals, 23 assists, 54 points, 82 games, -3
Keith Tkachuk - 25 goals, 24 assists, 49 points, 79 games, -11
A Total of between -36 and -44 in the +/- department. If you look at other teams that were successful, you'll note that Crosby had a +3, Eric Staal +15, Datsyuk in the +30's. In my estimation, our top line from last year got outscored too much when it was on the ice in 5v5 situations, and therefore lacks the ability to carry us in the playoffs, where most of cup finals consisted of less than 3-4 powerplay opportunities (throwing out game 5's issues after it became a blowout). Next year's 2008 season 1st line looks like the following.
Brad Boyes
Andy McDonald
Paul Kariya
IMO, this team will need this line to be right around .500 if it is to be considered the top line on the team. It has the makings of a very ranged powerplay unit (missing the Backes type of guy in front of the net), but outside of Kariya could not hold a -5 +/- or better. The 2nd line's #'s looked like this.
David Perron - 15 goals, 35 assists, 50 points, 81 games, +13
Patrik Berglund - 21 goals, 26 assists, 47 points, 76 games, +19
TJ Oshie - 14 goals, 25 assists, 39 points, 57 games, +16
The second line matches up very well around the league versus other teams second units in terms of outscoring it's opponent 5v5. If it had more points, it'd be a viable #1 line for us instead right now. Here are the point totals if they had played 82 games each.
15-36-51 for Perron
22-28-50 for Berglund
22-34-56 for Oshie
150 points is not bad for a 2nd line, but would have to do better with first line minutes. For Berlund, we'd also require some proof that he can handle the load of 82 games with first line ice time, which would be a question mark in my book still. As far as my personal expectations go for the top 6 as it stands now, here is a list.
Line 1
Brad Boyes - 30g, 40a, 70p, -5
Andy McDonald - 25g, 41a, 66p, -4
Paul Kariya - 20g, 55a, 75p, +4
Line 2
David Perron - 22g, 36a, 58p, +10
Patrik Berlund - 25g, 38a, 63p, +12
TJ Oshie - 23g, 34a, 57p, +15
That nets 145 of your 233 goals from last season from the entire team, leaving the rest of the team to account for the remaining 88. The remainder includes David Backes (24g), Jay McClement (11g), and two more of roughly 10-15g potential (Steen and Crombeen seem to be those two right now, but only steen is locked into a slot). Therefore, my conclusion is that this team lacks the offensive firepower to stick with the Stanley Cup contenders for next season. This team needs to be closer to 230 goals, and 210 against if it is going to be a team that is looking at the #4-#6 seeds, and a +50 spread if it is a serious contender. Anything can happen, but i'd much rather increase the odds at some point. If you assume that the top two lines score 145, and the next two lines combine for 55, you'll be asking a primarily defensive defensemen core to get you 30 and keep opponents under 205 goals against.
So what's missing? IMO, we need to improve upon the top three, or improve on the defense and it's lack of offense (1 12-15g scorer and 1 6-10 in EJ and Carlo as it stands now, and only 1 QB type defensemen). And the problems the blues face is that if they go the FA route, how are they going to pay that guy the 5-7mil he'll want? Havlat sounds like a 6mil guy minimum, Hossa may not event want in our market.
If The blues do nothing this season, it will be because they cant find a way to move McKee's contract. It is the one thing currently handicapping a FA bid or a Trade for that 70 point +10 type of 1st line forward that we lack, or that 10-15g 30-50a defensemen that we could use. Theres nothing wrong with McKee being on the roster next year, just means the blues couldn't find a way to get their team in position to get further into the playoffs just yet.
The following is a look into what the team has going for it, and what it does not.
In 2008, the blues finished 10 games over the .500 mark at 41-31-10. However, they also finished the season at 233 goals for and 233 goals against, which would be an indicator that they just as easily could have been closer to .500 record wise, but not so much that they should have been.
In 2008, the blues top line (the normal top line guys), posted the following #'s.
Brad Boyes - 33 goals, 39 assists, 72 points, 82 games, -20 +/-
Andy Mcdonald - 15 goals, 29 assists, 44 points, 46 games, -13 +/-
David Backes - 31 goals, 23 assists, 54 points, 82 games, -3
Keith Tkachuk - 25 goals, 24 assists, 49 points, 79 games, -11
A Total of between -36 and -44 in the +/- department. If you look at other teams that were successful, you'll note that Crosby had a +3, Eric Staal +15, Datsyuk in the +30's. In my estimation, our top line from last year got outscored too much when it was on the ice in 5v5 situations, and therefore lacks the ability to carry us in the playoffs, where most of cup finals consisted of less than 3-4 powerplay opportunities (throwing out game 5's issues after it became a blowout). Next year's 2008 season 1st line looks like the following.
Brad Boyes
Andy McDonald
Paul Kariya
IMO, this team will need this line to be right around .500 if it is to be considered the top line on the team. It has the makings of a very ranged powerplay unit (missing the Backes type of guy in front of the net), but outside of Kariya could not hold a -5 +/- or better. The 2nd line's #'s looked like this.
David Perron - 15 goals, 35 assists, 50 points, 81 games, +13
Patrik Berglund - 21 goals, 26 assists, 47 points, 76 games, +19
TJ Oshie - 14 goals, 25 assists, 39 points, 57 games, +16
The second line matches up very well around the league versus other teams second units in terms of outscoring it's opponent 5v5. If it had more points, it'd be a viable #1 line for us instead right now. Here are the point totals if they had played 82 games each.
15-36-51 for Perron
22-28-50 for Berglund
22-34-56 for Oshie
150 points is not bad for a 2nd line, but would have to do better with first line minutes. For Berlund, we'd also require some proof that he can handle the load of 82 games with first line ice time, which would be a question mark in my book still. As far as my personal expectations go for the top 6 as it stands now, here is a list.
Line 1
Brad Boyes - 30g, 40a, 70p, -5
Andy McDonald - 25g, 41a, 66p, -4
Paul Kariya - 20g, 55a, 75p, +4
Line 2
David Perron - 22g, 36a, 58p, +10
Patrik Berlund - 25g, 38a, 63p, +12
TJ Oshie - 23g, 34a, 57p, +15
That nets 145 of your 233 goals from last season from the entire team, leaving the rest of the team to account for the remaining 88. The remainder includes David Backes (24g), Jay McClement (11g), and two more of roughly 10-15g potential (Steen and Crombeen seem to be those two right now, but only steen is locked into a slot). Therefore, my conclusion is that this team lacks the offensive firepower to stick with the Stanley Cup contenders for next season. This team needs to be closer to 230 goals, and 210 against if it is going to be a team that is looking at the #4-#6 seeds, and a +50 spread if it is a serious contender. Anything can happen, but i'd much rather increase the odds at some point. If you assume that the top two lines score 145, and the next two lines combine for 55, you'll be asking a primarily defensive defensemen core to get you 30 and keep opponents under 205 goals against.
So what's missing? IMO, we need to improve upon the top three, or improve on the defense and it's lack of offense (1 12-15g scorer and 1 6-10 in EJ and Carlo as it stands now, and only 1 QB type defensemen). And the problems the blues face is that if they go the FA route, how are they going to pay that guy the 5-7mil he'll want? Havlat sounds like a 6mil guy minimum, Hossa may not event want in our market.
If The blues do nothing this season, it will be because they cant find a way to move McKee's contract. It is the one thing currently handicapping a FA bid or a Trade for that 70 point +10 type of 1st line forward that we lack, or that 10-15g 30-50a defensemen that we could use. Theres nothing wrong with McKee being on the roster next year, just means the blues couldn't find a way to get their team in position to get further into the playoffs just yet.
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