Standings Snippet 11/17/2010

WESTERN GP W L OTL PTS

• Los Angeles 16 12 4 0 24
• Detroit 15 11 3 1 23
• Vancouver 17 10 4 3 23
• Anaheim 20 10 8 2 22
• St. Louis 16 9 4 3 21
• San Jose 16 9 5 2 20
• Chicago 20 9 9 2 20
• Colorado 17 9 7 1 19
• Phoenix 17 7 5 5 19
• Columbus 15 9 6 0 18
• Dallas 16 9 7 0 18
• Minnesota 16 8 6 2 18
• Nashville 16 7 6 3 17
• Calgary 16 7 9 0 14
• Edmonton 16 4 9 3 11

The Blues have gone into a small funk brought on by Injuries to Forwards TJ Oshie, David Perron, and several defensemen since the last blog update. Add injuries galore to the goalies coming back down to earth at this point and then some, and you get 1 point in 4 games. That being said, the blues are still on a playoff pace, and still seem to be on the same goal scoring pace.

Speaking of Injuries, several sources have Jackman about 2 to 3 weeks away at this point, and david perron 1-2 weeks away. That will more than likely help the blues get back into a solid 4 line swing, and it should allow the blues to go back to a top 6 of Johnson, Brewer, Jackman, Pietrangelo, Nikitin, & Colaiacovo. It will also allow the blues to play Sobotka on the 4th at times again, and D'agostini on the 3rd line, which gives us 10 to 11 forwards capable of 11-12 minutes per game if need be.

At the time of this post, the blues and wings are tied 1-1.

St Louis Blues Standings Watch 10/26/10

Western Conference

Team		GP	Pts
1.	* Nashville	8	13
2.	* Los Angeles	8	12
3.	* Calgary	8	10
4.	Detroit	7	11
5.	Chicago	10	11
6.	St. Louis	7	10
7.	Dallas	7	10
8.	Columbus	8	10
9.	Minnesota	8	8
10.	Vancouver	8	8
11.	Colorado	8	8
12.	San Jose	7	7
13.	Phoenix	7	7
14.	Anaheim	9	7
15.	Edmonton	6	4

A lot of people who watch the standings late in the year often look at how we can make up ground. To Follow my first week or two of this, visit the blues forums at stltoday.com

Looking Back on the first 6-10 games of the season...

Rather than look too far ahead, lets first look back at what the blues have done thus far and how other teams have done thus far. First off, no team in either conference is still perfect on the year. The closest two teams are both in the Central Division in the Western Conference with the blues... as the Red Wings are 3 off of a perfect pace, as are the Nashville Predators. And the fact that the blues are just 1 off of the perfect pace thus far bodes well for them. Meanwhile, the team in the worst shape is Edmonton, who after winning twice early in the year has dropped 4 straight, or .66-.67 points per game. To get into the playoffs, they need to make up 6 points over 7 teams, and have only one game-in-hand over 3 of the 5 easier teams to catch. They hold 4 games in hand over the blackhawks, but do you really want to be looking back at a top 6 forward top 4 defensive pairing that they have in 8th place? Nobody does. So the fact is, whether or not you consider the season at this point in the season to be relevant or not, it in fact can be.

The Blackhawks are still at a 90 point pace through 1/8th of the season, and some would argue an extended post season, a limited depth that forces large minutes by the top players, and a tough early season schedule will eventually even out and allow them to get back. However, the blues need to manage just 1 point over the 3 game spread between teams at this point in time to match them, and logic at this point speaks to the blues being able to get roughly 3 or 4. So your talking about the Blackhawks having to make up 3 points at some point if they want a higher seed. And you can make a somewhat similar case for all 8 of the current playoff teams, as well as San Jose or phoenix being capable of presenting a similar pace. So it is noteworthy that the Blackhawks need to pick up the pace at some point out of necessity.

Briefly looking at the East, the worst team in the league right now is New Jersey, which is a shock. The joke in the early goings looks to be on the Eastern Conference once again, as the west has 2 teams below the break even point in points versus games played, whereas the East has 5. I wouldn't be overly surprised to see some coaches get the door pretty early over there, with the worst team being the first to pull the trigger (it is Lou after all).

Looking Ahead....

There are a handful of games over the next few days worth peaking at as far as the standings. I try to judge games in for 3 point outcomes, which happen from time to time, and the places in which the impact would be the least in my estimation

Tuesday:
Phoenix @ Ottawa - Rooting for Ottawa in the East, indifferent to 3 point results if Phoenix manages just 1.
Anaheim @ Dallas - Rooting for Anaheim in a 2 point game.
Edmonton @ Calgary - Rooting for Edmonton in a 2 point game.
Colorado @ Vancouver - Indifferent to the winner in a 2 point game.

Wednesday:
Los Angeles @ Chicago - Indifferent to the winner in a 2 point game.
New Jersey @ San Jose - Rooting for New Jersey, indifferent to a 3 point result.

Thursday:
Edmonton @ Columbus - Rooting for Edmonton in a 2 point game, although 3 in this particular case wouldn't be the end of the world.
Phoenix @ Detroit - Rooting for Phoenix in a 2 point game.
St Louis @ Nashville - Duh
Los Angeles @ Dallas - Indifferent if Los Angeles loses outright to Chicago on Wednesday. Rooting for Dallas otherwise.
Colorado @ Calgary - Indifferent IF Colorado Wins @ Vancouver on Tuesday, and Calgary Wins at home against Edmonton. If both lose it becomes an indifferent situation as well due to both losing pace, if both win or if Calgary wins and Colorado doesn't, you are rooting for Colorado. Complicated, i know.

Friday:
Edmonton @ Chicago - Regardless of scenarios of prior games.... Edmonton in a 2 point game.
New Jersey @ Anaheim - I'm relatively indifferent because Anaheim is not good enough defensively in my estimation, but with the opponent being from the East might as well sink them i suppose, indifferent for sure to a 3 point outcome.

Saturday will have to wait until at least Thursdays Results are know, We'd end up with Colorado @ Calgary type scenario to multiple games.

Rating Jarmo

A lot of mixed emotions have been spilling out of the blues boards over the past two or so weeks over draft picks made by Jarmo. Some people feel as if he is a genius who can turn picks into gold. Others believe him to be very overrated. I thought I'd look into some of these picks he has made, and lets see what they've become.

2005
1st round - #24 - TJ Oshie - Above average offensive talent, spark plug type of player that makes the whole team want to raise it's game another level. Was seen as a reach during the 2005 draft, but with oshie now being taken in the top 15 in most mocks of this draft by random experts and bloggers out there, it seems like Jarmo did well to take him.

2nd round - #37 - Scott Jackson - No longer part of the organization. He is in the top 20 at #18 on HF with the tampa bay lightning, but that is considered a bottom 5 organization as far as prospects are concerned. At 22 and as a defensemen, Jackson still has a chance to eventually make it to the pros, but Jarmo did not produce much for the blues with this pick.

3rd round - #85 - Ben Bishop - One of two goalies in the organization currently being considered as the future net minder for the blues (the other being jake allen). He ranks highly in Hockeysfuture, and with the frustrated/down schwarz no longer in front of him, the hometown kid looks to be in the drivers seat. Being as hit or miss as goalies are, this pick looks good on Jarmo's resume.

The Late Picks: Mostly duds. If there is one area that Jarmo isn't good at its at the back end of a draft. Most organizations get at least one right per draft, and in this draft outside of drazenovic there isn't even a chance of that.

So 2/3 in the first 3 rounds, and 0/4 in the remaining.

2006
1st Round - #1 - Erik Johnson - Injuries have stymied some of Johnson's #'s so far, but even still he looks to be a successful NHL prospect, and therefore Jarmo did good on this pick.

1st Round - #25 - Patrik Berglund - Another 1st round pick that the blues had in this draft, and another guy currently playing 2nd line duties for the blues. To have drafted two guys that within the first two seasons were playing for the blues and playing a key role on the blues organization means that jarmo once again has gotten his first round talent right.

2nd Round - #31 - Tomas Kana - Kana's ceiling seems limited for a guy taken #31. His offensive #'s have not come into play very much in the ECHL or the AHL levels. He does however seem to come in the mold of a gritty 3rd or 4th line player, and he's still young enough to become a factor later on, so I'd chalk this up as an average draft pick on jarmo's part.

3rd Round - #64 - Jonas Junland - Junland is currently fighting for a #6/#7 spot on the blues organization itself. He is labeled currently as a poor mans offensive defensemen, but is still only 21 years old. So to be on the fringe of making the blues organization within three seasons of being drafted means he could very well be a part of our future plans, and therefore he is a nice pickup by Jarmo and the blues scouts.

Late Rounds: I once again don't see anyone that looks like that guy that can contribute down the road for sure. Not that I am looking for that Zetterberg down here, but i am looking for a few guys to make it. The Lee Stempniaks, even a Petr Cajanek type.

So probably 3.5/4 for Jarmo again in the earlier rounds, and 0 for 5 in the late.

I could continue on, but i think we're getting the picture pretty quick. Jarmo is one of those guys who is really good and finding the best talent in the early rounds, but it seems like he puts so much emphasis there that he never has the resources and therefore the knowledge to make those good late picks.

For better or for worse, I'd say that makes jarmo and his stop in the upper end of most scouting groups, but I'd say they fall short where a few other organizations succeed in picking up late talents, so he doesn't turn picks into gold. Guess it's somewhere in that happy medium between sides (of the fanbase) on their opinions of jarmo.

Tkachuk & A Goalie Trade

Keith Tkachuk, according to Andy Strickland, began negotiations on a new contract. This follows suit with the comments made by Blues President John Davidson earlier in the day. In that same interview, JD also mentioned that a goalie may be obtained via FA or trade, opening up potential trading partners similar to the situation that occurred last offseason with Chris Mason. Whether or not that means that they are going that route again or not i don't know, and personally suspect not.

The bigger question is what would it do to the lines.

Boyes - Mcdonald - Kariya
Perron - Berglund - Oshie

Those were my assumed top lines from before, with the obvious thought that AM switches them up during the game fairly often.

3rd line seems like it'd be similar to Crombeen/Backes - McClement - Steen
4th line would be Winchester/FA/King, Walt, Backes/Cam/King.

That's a mess obviously, but the point is Backes would get progressively more ice time as the game went on, taking the place of a goon.

PK1 would be Backes Oshie, PK2 would be McClement Crombeen with steen in the wings if one of the 4 should be in the box.

Walt figures into one of the power play lines with a forward likely manning at least one point.

Complicated enough yet? It gets better.

The blues might not even be done shopping for a forward if Walt resigns. Crombeen is not a given until he's signed, and we could very well go after another veteran forward to replace Crombeen's slot rather than resigning Winchester. I'd like to see a grinder with hands, but I think Winchester would probably be the best and most affordable option out there.

~~~

The plan this last season was to have Legace as the 1A and Mason 1B. A trip on the carpet and head games later, Mason is the starter and Bishop was a bystander for the majority of the season. Doesn't sound like the blues want Bishop to do that again, so the options are now out there with Free Agency right around the corner. There are many changes in coaching/front office these days, and we could very well see goalies on the way out from those teams. It'll take a while to sort that out.

Blues Outlook - What's Missing

There has been much speculation as to what the blues truly need to become successful. Some say that we need to package a few prospects and a guy in the lineup to get a known talent. Others think we just need kids to graduate from the minors and such to be successful.

The following is a look into what the team has going for it, and what it does not.

In 2008, the blues finished 10 games over the .500 mark at 41-31-10. However, they also finished the season at 233 goals for and 233 goals against, which would be an indicator that they just as easily could have been closer to .500 record wise, but not so much that they should have been.

In 2008, the blues top line (the normal top line guys), posted the following #'s.
Brad Boyes - 33 goals, 39 assists, 72 points, 82 games, -20 +/-
Andy Mcdonald - 15 goals, 29 assists, 44 points, 46 games, -13 +/-
David Backes - 31 goals, 23 assists, 54 points, 82 games, -3
Keith Tkachuk - 25 goals, 24 assists, 49 points, 79 games, -11

A Total of between -36 and -44 in the +/- department. If you look at other teams that were successful, you'll note that Crosby had a +3, Eric Staal +15, Datsyuk in the +30's. In my estimation, our top line from last year got outscored too much when it was on the ice in 5v5 situations, and therefore lacks the ability to carry us in the playoffs, where most of cup finals consisted of less than 3-4 powerplay opportunities (throwing out game 5's issues after it became a blowout). Next year's 2008 season 1st line looks like the following.

Brad Boyes
Andy McDonald
Paul Kariya

IMO, this team will need this line to be right around .500 if it is to be considered the top line on the team. It has the makings of a very ranged powerplay unit (missing the Backes type of guy in front of the net), but outside of Kariya could not hold a -5 +/- or better. The 2nd line's #'s looked like this.

David Perron - 15 goals, 35 assists, 50 points, 81 games, +13
Patrik Berglund - 21 goals, 26 assists, 47 points, 76 games, +19
TJ Oshie - 14 goals, 25 assists, 39 points, 57 games, +16

The second line matches up very well around the league versus other teams second units in terms of outscoring it's opponent 5v5. If it had more points, it'd be a viable #1 line for us instead right now. Here are the point totals if they had played 82 games each.

15-36-51 for Perron
22-28-50 for Berglund
22-34-56 for Oshie

150 points is not bad for a 2nd line, but would have to do better with first line minutes. For Berlund, we'd also require some proof that he can handle the load of 82 games with first line ice time, which would be a question mark in my book still. As far as my personal expectations go for the top 6 as it stands now, here is a list.

Line 1
Brad Boyes - 30g, 40a, 70p, -5
Andy McDonald - 25g, 41a, 66p, -4
Paul Kariya - 20g, 55a, 75p, +4
Line 2
David Perron - 22g, 36a, 58p, +10
Patrik Berlund - 25g, 38a, 63p, +12
TJ Oshie - 23g, 34a, 57p, +15

That nets 145 of your 233 goals from last season from the entire team, leaving the rest of the team to account for the remaining 88. The remainder includes David Backes (24g), Jay McClement (11g), and two more of roughly 10-15g potential (Steen and Crombeen seem to be those two right now, but only steen is locked into a slot). Therefore, my conclusion is that this team lacks the offensive firepower to stick with the Stanley Cup contenders for next season. This team needs to be closer to 230 goals, and 210 against if it is going to be a team that is looking at the #4-#6 seeds, and a +50 spread if it is a serious contender. Anything can happen, but i'd much rather increase the odds at some point. If you assume that the top two lines score 145, and the next two lines combine for 55, you'll be asking a primarily defensive defensemen core to get you 30 and keep opponents under 205 goals against.

So what's missing? IMO, we need to improve upon the top three, or improve on the defense and it's lack of offense (1 12-15g scorer and 1 6-10 in EJ and Carlo as it stands now, and only 1 QB type defensemen). And the problems the blues face is that if they go the FA route, how are they going to pay that guy the 5-7mil he'll want? Havlat sounds like a 6mil guy minimum, Hossa may not event want in our market.

If The blues do nothing this season, it will be because they cant find a way to move McKee's contract. It is the one thing currently handicapping a FA bid or a Trade for that 70 point +10 type of 1st line forward that we lack, or that 10-15g 30-50a defensemen that we could use. Theres nothing wrong with McKee being on the roster next year, just means the blues couldn't find a way to get their team in position to get further into the playoffs just yet.

Tkachuk & Resigning

Tkachuk

While many fans seem to want tkachuk back, the problem the blues have is whether or not they can bring him back and continue brining ready and available players into the fold. It's getting closer to that time where the blues have the "good" problem of having too mant talented players to fit onto one roster.

Paul Kariya, Brad Boyes, and Andy Mcdonald are a potential line 1. Perron, Berglund, and Oshie are a potental line 2. Line 3 if we take signed players are Steen, Backes, and Janssen. And line 4 right now has King on it. Thats 10 slots for certain filled with currently signed contracts, and we have Crombeen and McClement on RFA eligibility along with Winchester, Walt, and Hinote. All indications that are seen to the general public (me and you) indicate that McClement will be someone we want back, along with BJ Crombeen. The lack of interest from either one of those players in making it easy and another team signing an offer sheet could be the difference in whether or not Walt comes back If those two sign, you have 12 forwards under contract, 10 of which will likely be every day fixtures, and somehow i see Janssen and King suiting up for 65-70 of the games between the two of them.

My guess is walt coming back relies more on the blues needing to fill out the roster versus him willing to take a paycut of large proportions.

Free Agency

While Hinote clears 1mil in cap space, winchester clears, 600k, and Walt 4mil, that does not necessarily indicate that the blues will have room for the forward free agent market. The indication is that the blues are really only looking at a RW veteran, and with Andy Mcdonald signing a deal that pays him 1.6mil more annually plus a projected 1mil in additional Crombeen/McClement costs, the blues likely are only left with 2.5-3mil in space. This does not include the defensive FA's and RFA's (Polak RFA, Weaver UFA, Woywitka RFA).

Yan Stastny is likely to at least get a look on the 4th line rotation when the blues are looking at matching grinders up instead of fighters, so you may want to ink that in.

The blues also will be interested in finding another backup goaltender. This time, I believe the blues instead of finding the 1B type that they believed chris mason to be, they are simply looking for that 15-20 appearance goalie, and letting Mason take the bulk of the load. It's much cheaper to go that route, assuming they don't find a 1B that'll sign cheap (1B means a 30ish games guy to go with masons 50, rather than a true backup of 15 games with mason's 65).

All in all, it shapes up to be the blues signing a RW and a Goalie. If they make any other moves, it'll be a cut of Jay McKee that signals that event.